An rational analysis of college football.

Saturday, August 02, 2008

LSU National Champions

OK, I just exhaled. LSU beat the pants off Ohio State, in a game that looked a lot like the previous BCS National Championship game in which Florida beat Ohio State.

What did the last two college seasons show us? That the SEC schedule is a better preparation for the big bowl games than the Big Ten. The Big Ten still have great football. Remember, Michigan avenged a dreadful season by beating Florida, but Florida looked like a team that was dialing it in, playing in a lesser bowl after a National Championship the previous year. Michigan, on the other hand, looked inspired. And good for them.

But to prove the earlier point, no SEC team has ever lost in a BCS Championship Game, and the SEC has four of the ten championships. No other conference has such a record.

As for LSU, the Tigers look primed to rip the SEC up again this year. The road schedule is tough, in that the Tigers go to Auburn and Florida. Plus, the Tigers play Georgia, who enters the season ranked #1. But overall, the schedule is fairly soft, with no non-conference games against major conference opponents. The soft schedule makes an eight win season almost inevitable.

But Florida, Georgia and Auburn are so good, that there is probably no team in the country that could run that gauntlet with better than a 2-1 record. If LSU can beat Auburn and either Georgia or Florida, expect LSU to win the SEC again this year.

On the other hand, if LSU looses all three, expect them to in the Peach Bowl with 9-3 record, probably against Clemson.

LSU returns what is arguably the best defensive line in the country, and the best offensive line in the SEC. They have inexperienced, but very solid defensive backs and serviceable linebackers. On the offensive side, they have a stable of talented wide receivers and running backs. Given that, why where they picked second in the SEC West?

Because they have NO experienced quarterback. Nobody has seen any of these guys play college football. With the number one backup kicked off the team, LSU will be starting the guy who was #3, #4 or playing in high school last year. Now that wouldn't be a big deal in some schools. But LSU is fielding one of the best teams in the country. Its like giving your 16 year old with a new learners permit the keys to the Ferrari. You sure hope the kid can drive.

If the quarterback can play, watch out. If he can't, buy your tickets for the Peach Bowl early.