LSU in the Sugar

Well, it is January 31 and time for predictions. Granted, my college predictions in 2006 were almost perfectly wrong. I expected the SEC and Big 10 to be too good to allow their teams to advance to the BCS. I expected a Big 12, Big East or Pac 10 team to sneak through undefeated. I couldn't have been more wrong. But that wont stop me from making more prediction.

In the Summer I predicted that LSU or Auburn would win the SEC West. This was no great risk, as most folks thought the same. But Arkansas played some inspired football and earned their way to Atlanta. A late loss at home to LSU indicated that the SEC West (and likely the SEC East) suffered from a stiff dose of parity. LSU's brutal road schedule was too much for them to handle, especially at the beginning of the year when their offense was still struggling to find its game. I had the distinct feeling that that the LSU team that beat Arkansas in Arkansas was better in November than the Auburn team that lost at home to Georgia. Both LSU and Florida seemed to get stronger as the year when on, but LSU faced Florida in Florida, and that decided the fate of both teams.

If LSU beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, expect LSU to be everyone's favorite to win the SEC WEST next year. But LSU and Michigan face tough mental tests. Both teams had their hopes pinned to different bowl appearances, and both teams feel like they are facing a weaker opponent. Furthermore, both LSU and Michigan have a history of playing poorly in just such circumstances. Michigan has a fine history of getting whipped by an inferior PAC 10 team in the Rose Bowl, and LSU has always been a team with a fragile psyche. Though LSU and Michigan should dominate, watch out for the double upset here: Notre Dame and USC winning big over better opponents. The folks in Vegas have already made USC the favorite. Picking Notre Dame is a bit trickier because LSU is essentially playing at home.

For Michigan it will be all about their defense. USC has tons of speed and if they start moving the ball early against Michigan, Michigan will panic. Michigan has plenty of offense, but it is on the defensive side that things get hairy for them. On the other hand, USC's defense is fast and could give Michigan's offense just enough trouble...

For LSU, it is all about turnovers. If they can avoid fumbles and interceptions, they will cut through the Notre Dame defense like a knife. But just a few mistakes will be all it takes to send Notre Dame the message that if they play tough they can win. You know the Irish will not ignore such a message.

Ohio State faces the same danger Michigan faces. Florida will be fast, and funky, doing god-knows what at QB. Freshly sucking on the tit of the Heisman, and reading about how they are the best team that every lived, and finding themselves in weather that seems a lot like southern California, don't be surprised if they pull a classic Big 10 roll-over and fall apart.

The disaster scenario for the BCS is Ohio State crushing Florida, and Michigan crushing USC. Then everyone will cry foul and ask why didn't we get the Michigan/Ohio State rematch. I predict that Florida and USC will win, but if they don't the cries for a playoff system or yet another re-vamping of the BCS will be heard across the nation.

Elsewhere, Oklahoma entertains Boise State, Wisconsin faces Arkansas, Nebraska faces Auburn, and Georgia Tech faces West Virginia. I expect West Virginia to pull out the victory, as does everyone else. Georgia Tech has no offense, and is starting a new QB.

Expect Wisconsin to handle Arkansas. Once Arkansas found their running game, they starting causing a lot of trouble for good teams like Tennessee, Auburn and South Carolina. But LSU and Florida gave us the blue-print for beating them. Wisconsin will watch the tape, and Arkansas is too one-dimensional to do anything about it. The Arkansas backs will get their yards, but they wont get enough to win.

The Nebraska verses Auburn game is a tough call. Auburn is probably the better team, but Auburn failed to bring their best in November. If Auburn shows up, this game will get ugly. But too, Auburn could dial it in and embarass themselves.

Lastly, can the Boise Boys beat the Sooners? I think they can and will. Boise State hasn't played well against the big boys in the past, especially on the road. Does anyone remember what Georgia did to them last year? Ouch. No doubt this could happen again. But Navy showed everyone yesterday that the little guys can hang with the big boys, and I expect Boise State to take this lesson to heart and play hard and for four quarters.

Predictions and excuses are like...

Those of you who read my 2006 college football season predictions are laughing pretty hard right now. I couldn't have been more wrong. I argued that the BCS formula played into the hands of weaker conferences, leaving the strong conferences out in the BCS Championship snow. Hence, I thought that the Big 10 and SEC would struggle to send teams to the championship game this year.

Obvously I was wrong...but...Florida needed help from the Gods to get in, because despite having the toughest schedule in football, they had too many "ugly" wins. Hence, the voters were inclined to take USC, Notre Dame, or even Michigan over the Gators. But USC and Notre Dame ended with two losses, and the notion of a team finishing second in its conference leap-frogger a conference champ with the same number of losses was too much for voters to stomach. The tough schedule almost cost Florida a trip to Arizona.

Strength of schedule has never amounted to much in the BCS. Recall an undefeated Auburn, in the toughest conference in football got left at the alter by the BCS two years ago.

Meanwhile, Ohio State's Big 10 schedule was easier than it looked, because they didn't have to play Wisconsin, and after the top 3 teams, the Big 10 was softer than expected. Also, Ohio State had the advantage of playing Texas when Texas was ranked #2. That gave the Buckeyes the look of champions way back in September. People remembered that Rose Bowl, not knowing that Texas would turn out to be an average team, finishing the season falling to K-State and Texas A&M.

USC should not have finished with 2 losses to inferior teams. Louisville should have beaten Rutgers. My hat's off to Rutgers, UCLA and Oregon State, all of whom played like heros. But had USC or Louisville beaten just one of those teams, Florida would have been outside looking in.

Still, the two best football conference are represented in the Championship, so I will eat crow until 2007.

2006 College Football Season

Well, the college football season is almost over, and two things stand out. First, the BCS is still stupid. Second, university presidents have officially sold their souls to college football. When Oklahoma lost to Oregon on a bad call, the president of Oklahoma demanded that the NCAA officially nullify the result. Imagine this: The president of Oklahoma’s premier state institution of higher learning demanding that the student athletes at Oregon be denied their victory because of a bad call by an official. I hardly know where to begin, other than to say that if one of Oklahoma’s players made such a demand I would call it childish. That the president should get involved at all is odd. That he should make such a demand borders on the absurd and probably marks the end of the university system in the USA as we previously understood it.

College football has outgrown colleges and universities. Chances are, Oklahoma’s football coach is the highest paid employee at the University of Oklahoma. He and his coaching staff are probably paid more than the math or theater department. Remind me again of the university’s priorities? Would the Oklahoma president have gone on national TV to dress down a local theater company that preferred an Oklahoma State student for the role of Juliet to a University of Oklahoma student?

When Florida meets Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game, we ought rightly wonder, if those university presidents were forced to choose between the football program and the History department, which would they choose? I know. I am an idiot. Nobody thinks they would choose History.