Predictions and excuses are like...

Those of you who read my 2006 college football season predictions are laughing pretty hard right now. I couldn't have been more wrong. I argued that the BCS formula played into the hands of weaker conferences, leaving the strong conferences out in the BCS Championship snow. Hence, I thought that the Big 10 and SEC would struggle to send teams to the championship game this year.

Obvously I was wrong...but...Florida needed help from the Gods to get in, because despite having the toughest schedule in football, they had too many "ugly" wins. Hence, the voters were inclined to take USC, Notre Dame, or even Michigan over the Gators. But USC and Notre Dame ended with two losses, and the notion of a team finishing second in its conference leap-frogger a conference champ with the same number of losses was too much for voters to stomach. The tough schedule almost cost Florida a trip to Arizona.

Strength of schedule has never amounted to much in the BCS. Recall an undefeated Auburn, in the toughest conference in football got left at the alter by the BCS two years ago.

Meanwhile, Ohio State's Big 10 schedule was easier than it looked, because they didn't have to play Wisconsin, and after the top 3 teams, the Big 10 was softer than expected. Also, Ohio State had the advantage of playing Texas when Texas was ranked #2. That gave the Buckeyes the look of champions way back in September. People remembered that Rose Bowl, not knowing that Texas would turn out to be an average team, finishing the season falling to K-State and Texas A&M.

USC should not have finished with 2 losses to inferior teams. Louisville should have beaten Rutgers. My hat's off to Rutgers, UCLA and Oregon State, all of whom played like heros. But had USC or Louisville beaten just one of those teams, Florida would have been outside looking in.

Still, the two best football conference are represented in the Championship, so I will eat crow until 2007.